White Sox vs Tigers Picks and Odds – September 29, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox prepare to face off on September 29, 2024, at Comerica Park, both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the American League Central spectrum. The Tigers, with an 86-75 record, have had an above-average season, while the White Sox have languished to a dismal 40-121 mark. The Tigers are looking to bounce back after a surprising 4-0 loss to the White Sox yesterday.

Detroit is sending Kenta Maeda to the mound, a right-hander who has struggled this season with a 5.93 ERA and a 3-6 record. Despite these underwhelming numbers, Maeda’s 4.49 xFIP suggests some bad luck, and he may be due for a stronger performance. Chicago counters with Jonathan Cannon, who brings a slightly better but still average 4.37 ERA. Though Cannon’s recent outing was a bright spot, going six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, he faces a Tigers bullpen ranked 4th in the power rankings, which stands in stark contrast to Chicago’s own bullpen woes at 27th.

Offensively, neither team has set the league on fire, but the Tigers hold a slight edge with Riley Greene leading their charge. Greene has managed to keep his batting average at .263 with 24 home runs, providing a beacon of hope for the Detroit lineup. Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn has been the standout for Chicago, though the White Sox offense ranks as the league’s worst in both batting average and home runs.

The Tigers are the favored team, carrying a moneyline of -210 and an implied win probability of 65%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, reinforces this expectation, giving Detroit a 69% chance to take the win. With a low game total set at 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested, low-scoring affair, with Maeda’s performance potentially swinging the game in Detroit’s favor.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Cannon to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (8th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Lenyn Sosa has recorded a .298 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert Jr., Korey Lee, Zach DeLoach).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Kenta Maeda – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Kenta Maeda will hold the platoon advantage against 7 opposing batters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Colt Keith is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 69 games (+17.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Bryan Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Bryan Ramos has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)