Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)-190
As the Chicago White Sox visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers on September 5, 2025, both teams are looking for a fresh start in this American League Central matchup. The Tigers, currently holding a solid record of 81-60, sit comfortably in the playoff race, while the White Sox struggle at 53-88, having been eliminated from contention in their division.
In their most recent outing, the Tigers showcased their offensive prowess, putting up a strong performance that highlights their ranking as the 11th best offense in MLB this season. They have been bolstered by their best hitter, who has been on fire lately, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.217 OPS over the past week. In contrast, the White Sox offense ranks 28th in the league and has had difficulty generating consistent runs, making their uphill battle even tougher.
On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Jack Flaherty, who, despite a 7-13 win/loss record and a somewhat average 4.74 ERA, ranks as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His 3.70 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky this year and could perform better moving forward. Flaherty has shown the ability to strike out batters, averaging 6.6 strikeouts per game, which could be crucial against a White Sox lineup that ranks poorly in offensive production.
Meanwhile, the White Sox will counter with Shane Smith, who has struggled with a 4-7 record and a solid 3.81 ERA, but his 4.49 xFIP suggests he may be due for regression. Smith’s projections indicate he is likely to pitch less effectively today, averaging just 4.9 innings and allowing 1.7 walks.
With the Tigers favored at a moneyline of -190 and an implied team total of 4.89 runs, they appear to be in a strong position to capitalize on the White Sox’s struggles. As the series opener, this matchup could set the tone for the remainder of their encounters.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Shane Smith – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-165)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Shane Smith is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+205/-275)Curtis Mead has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Jack Flaherty has utilized his slider 6% less often this season (23%) than he did last season (29%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88-mph average last year has dropped off to 86-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+18.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-130)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 122 games (+14.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)Wenceel Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+14.90 Units / 186% ROI)