Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-245
On May 8, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium for the fourth game of their series. The Royals are enjoying a strong season with a record of 22-16, while the White Sox are struggling at 10-27. Kansas City will look to build on their recent success, having taken the previous game against Chicago, further solidifying their position in the American League Central.
Kris Bubic is projected to take the mound for the Royals. With a solid Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 1.98, Bubic ranks as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to keep runs off the board will be crucial, especially against a White Sox offense that ranks 29th in the league. While Bubic’s projections indicate he may allow 2.2 earned runs and 5.0 hits today, his high strikeout potential and low walk rate should keep the White Sox at bay.
Davis Martin, on the other hand, is expected to start for Chicago. With a 1-3 record and a respectable ERA of 3.52, Martin has struggled with consistency as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.36. The Royals’ low-strikeout offense could play into Martin’s hands, but with a projected 2.9 earned runs allowed, he may still face challenges against a Royals lineup that, despite ranking 25th overall, has shown flashes of potential.
With the Royals as heavy favorites and an implied team total of 4.83 runs, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on the White Sox’s struggles. As both teams continue to navigate their respective seasons, this matchup could prove pivotal for Kansas City as they look to maintain their momentum.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)In his previous start, Davis Martin was on point and allowed 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Over the last week, Michael A. Taylor’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 40%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- It may be best to expect better numbers for the Chicago White Sox offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kris Bubic – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Kris Bubic has averaged 17.6 outs per outing this year, placing in the 87th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88.1-mph EV last year has fallen to 84.4-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kansas City Royals bats as a group grade out 28th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 6.8% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.72 Units / 27% ROI)