White Sox vs Guardians Bets and Betting Trends – 4/09/25

Chicago White Sox

@

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago White Sox on April 9, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup for teams struggling at the bottom of the American League Central standings. Cleveland, sitting at 4-6, and Chicago, at 2-8, both find themselves looking to turn their seasons around following a tough start. The Guardians won yesterday’s clash, which may provide them with a slight morale boost going into this second game of the series.

Cleveland is projected to start Logan Allen, who has had a rough season thus far. With a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.75, the left-hander’s metrics suggest he has been quite lucky, as indicated by his elevated 11.07 xERA and 8.11 SIERA. While Allen’s average projection of 5.3 innings and 2.5 earned runs may seem manageable, he faces a White Sox offense that ranks as the 3rd least strikeout-prone in MLB. This matchup plays to the Guardians’ disadvantage, given Allen’s low strikeout rate of 4.2 K%.

On the other side, Sean Burke will take the mound for Chicago. The right-hander has a slightly better Win/Loss record of 1-1, but his 5.23 ERA shows he too has had struggles. However, the projections suggest he may allow only 2.4 earned runs, which could keep the Guardians from capitalizing on their home-field advantage.

Offensively, Cleveland’s roster ranks 15th in the league, paralleled by their 8th ranking in home runs, showcasing some power potential. However, their batting average is a disappointing 21st, which could be problematic against a Chicago bullpen that ranks dead last in the league.

With the Guardians favored at -185 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.28 runs, this matchup leans in their favor, especially considering the White Sox’s struggles and their low implied total of 3.22 runs. If the Guardians can capitalize on their strengths and navigate around Allen’s shaky start, they may find themselves in a strong position to secure another win.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Sean Burke will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Austin Slater is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-165)
  Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Nolan Jones is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 38% ROI)