White Sox vs Cubs Betting Guide – 5/17/25

Chicago White Sox

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on May 17, 2025, the stakes are high given the teams’ contrasting seasons. The Cubs are currently enjoying a strong campaign with a record of 26-19, while the White Sox are struggling at 14-31. In their last matchup on May 16, the Cubs dominated, winning 13-3, and will look to carry that momentum into this second game of the series.

Matthew Boyd is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. He has been effective this season, boasting a 2.78 ERA and ranking as the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Boyd’s recent form has been solid; in his last start on May 11, he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters. However, there are indications that his performance could regress, as his 4.03 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate.

On the other hand, Sean Burke will start for the White Sox, and his numbers indicate he has faced considerable challenges this season. With a 4.15 ERA and a troubling 5.67 xFIP, Burke has struggled to find consistency. He projects to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, which could prove detrimental against a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in offense.

The Cubs’ offense has been on fire, ranking 3rd in home runs and 10th in batting average, which could pose a significant threat to Burke, who tends to give up fly balls. With the Cubs favored heavily in the betting market, the projections estimate they will score around 6.24 runs, while the White Sox are projected for a mere 3.76 runs. Given these matchups and the recent performance of both teams, the Cubs look poised to extend their winning streak against their crosstown rivals.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+195)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Joshua Palacios has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Matthew Boyd will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 96.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.0 (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)