Updated Player Rankings for Tigers vs Mariners – August 6th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners

On August 6, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams find themselves struggling this season, with the Mariners at 59-54, sitting on the fringes of contention, and the Tigers at 53-60, placing them well below average. The Mariners won their last game, a complete game shutout, and are keen to build momentum against the Tigers in this first meeting of the series.

Seattle’s Luis Castillo, rated as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, takes the mound. His season has shown promise with a solid 3.43 ERA, but he carries a mediocre 9-10 record due to insufficient run support. Castillo, who projects to pitch an average of 6.3 innings while allowing 1.9 earned runs, faces a Detroit offense that is ranked 27th overall this season and has struggled to find consistency.

On the other hand, the Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, whose performance has been lackluster with an ERA of 6.18 and a win-loss record of 1-5. Although Montero’s 4.40 xFIP suggests he might be poised for better results, he faces a Mariners lineup that, while ranked 26th in overall offense, still possesses power—ranking 14th in home runs.

With the Mariners targeting a high implied total of 4.37 runs, the low game total of 7.5 runs hints at a potentially low-scoring affair. The Mariners are favored heavily, suggesting confidence in Castillo’s ability to dominate against a struggling Tigers offense. This presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the Mariners’ momentum and Castillo’s favorable matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Keider Montero has been unlucky this year, compiling a 6.18 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.01 — a 1.17 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Zach McKinstry will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Bligh Madris, Justyn-Henry Malloy).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Luis Castillo’s 2162-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a substantial 125-rpm drop off from last season’s 2287-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.322) provides evidence that Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck this year with his .283 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-165)
  Wenceel Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)