Updated Player Rankings for Pirates vs Mets – May 12th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets

On May 12, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field for the opening game of a three-game series. The Mets are enjoying a solid season with a record of 26-15, while the Pirates are struggling at 14-27. In their last games, the Mets secured a convincing 6-2 victory, whereas the Pirates managed a narrow 4-3 win.

The matchup features New York’s David Peterson, a left-handed pitcher with an average ranking of 120th among starting pitchers, against Pittsburgh’s elite Paul Skenes, who ranks 2nd in the league. Peterson has been luckier than his 3.52 ERA suggests, as his 4.46 xERA indicates he may regress. Meanwhile, Skenes boasts an impressive 2.77 ERA and projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs today, making him a tough opponent for the Pirates, who have the 29th-ranked offense in MLB.

Offensively, the Mets are producing well, ranking 4th in the league, and possessing a strong batting average of .271, also putting them 7th overall. Despite their offensive struggles, the Pirates have shown some speed on the bases, ranking 7th in stolen bases, but their lack of power—having hit only 28 home runs this season—will challenge them against a groundball pitcher like Peterson, who boasts a 58% groundball rate.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -160, suggesting they are well positioned to continue their success against a struggling Pirates team that has been inconsistent all season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Paul Skenes’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (58.1% compared to 32.4% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Matt Gorski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Matt Gorski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  David Peterson’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (90.9 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Juan Soto has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.9-mph to 97.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+9.14 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 56% ROI)