Updated Player Rankings for Giants vs Guardians – 06/07/2024

San Francisco Giants

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians host the San Francisco Giants on July 6, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series at Progressive Field. The Guardians, currently holding a solid 54-32 record, are having an impressive season, while the Giants, sitting at 44-45, have been performing at an average level. The Guardians took the first game of the series, looking to build on their momentum.

On the mound, the Guardians will start Logan Allen, a lefty who has struggled despite his 8-4 record. Allen’s 5.75 ERA is concerning, but his 4.64 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and might see better results going forward. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, which is average. However, his high hit (5.2) and walk (1.7) projections indicate potential trouble.

The Giants counter with Kyle Harrison, another southpaw. Harrison’s 3.96 ERA is solid, but his 4.53 xERA implies he’s been fortunate so far. He’s projected to pitch only 3.8 innings, a below-average mark, allowing 1.8 earned runs. His projected 3.3 strikeouts and 3.8 hits allowed per game are also concerning.

Offensively, the Guardians rank as the 12th best in MLB, with notable power (10th in home runs) and speed (8th in stolen bases). Josh Naylor has been particularly hot, batting .375 with a 1.067 OPS over the last week. The Giants’ offense, ranking 13th, has been average across the board but struggles in stolen bases, ranking last. However, Michael Conforto has been on fire, hitting .400 with a 1.425 OPS in his last five games.

Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Giants’ relief corps ranked 1st and the Guardians’ 5th in MLB. This matchup promises a tight contest, reflected in the betting odds. The Guardians are slight favorites with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% win probability. Given their strong season and recent form, the Guardians look to have a slight edge in this close contest.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Harrison to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brett Wisely – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Brett Wisely has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Logan Allen has utilized his cut-fastball 6.6% more often this season (15.3%) than he did last season (8.7%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Tyler Freeman has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 78.4-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Cleveland Guardians offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+10.60 Units / 133% ROI)