Updated Player Rankings for Brewers vs Cardinals – August 20th, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the National League Central standings. The Cardinals sit at 61-63, reflecting an average season, while the Brewers boast a strong 72-52 record, marking them as one of the top contenders in the league. This matchup is crucial for the Cardinals, who are looking to gain ground, especially after a narrow 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in their last outing on August 18.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Erick Fedde, who has had a solid year with an 8-6 record and a commendable 3.40 ERA. Fedde has been above average in his performances, ranking as the 77th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. However, his 4.11 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck this season. He’ll face off against Frankie Montas, who has struggled with a 5-8 record and a 4.86 ERA, indicating below-average performance. Montas did pitch well in his last start, going five innings with no earned runs, but he has not been consistent.

The projections favor the Cardinals, suggesting they could score around 4.25 runs, while the Brewers are projected for a lower total of 4.04 runs. The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 19th in MLB, will need to step up against a Brewers team that ranks 10th overall. With the Cardinals’ best hitter, Alec Burleson, having a decent season but struggling recently, they will rely on contributions from players like Lars Nootbaar, who has shown promise with a .375 batting average over the last week.

As both teams look to establish dominance early in this series, the Cardinals will aim to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Busch Stadium and put a halt to the Brewers’ momentum.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Frankie Montas has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  In today’s matchup, Rhys Hoskins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.1% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Erick Fedde’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (70.1% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.7-mph mark last season has decreased to 87.5-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis grades out as the #5 offense in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (43.9% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 124 games (+10.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)