Understand the Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Mets Head-to-Head Insights April 5th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 5, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. The Mets enter this game with a record of 4-3, while the Blue Jays boast a slightly better 5-3 mark. The stakes are high in this Interleague matchup, especially as the Mets are projected to start Griffin Canning, who is still searching for his first win of the season after a 0-1 start. Meanwhile, Chris Bassitt, projected for the Blue Jays, comes in with a perfect 1-0 record and an impressive 1.50 ERA.

In their last outing, the Mets displayed some offensive firepower, with their best hitter racking up 10 RBIs over the past week, showcasing his ability to drive in runs. However, the Mets’ offense as a whole ranks a concerning 39th in MLB, indicating struggles in scoring consistently. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 17th, with a solid batting average of .300, placing them in a much better position to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Canning’s advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression, as his 3.18 ERA is supported by a higher 3.92 xFIP, indicating he might have been fortunate in his early outings. On the other hand, Bassitt’s projections indicate he is performing at an average level, but with room for improvement given his 2.86 xFIP.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a tightly contested affair. The Mets’ current moneyline of -130 reflects a slight favoritism, but given the Blue Jays’ recent form and offensive capabilities, this matchup could swing in either direction. Bettors should keep an eye on how both pitchers perform, as the outcome may hinge on their ability to limit runs and capitalize on scoring chances.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Griffin Canning.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.3% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays ranks them as the #24 offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Griffin Canning (37.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Toronto’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 122 games (+20.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 47% ROI)