Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
(-105/-115)-140
As the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers clash on June 21, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this critical matchup. The Rays are currently sitting at 42-34, while the Tigers boast an impressive 48-29 record. This game marks the second in the series, with the Rays coming off a notable 14-8 victory over the Tigers just a day prior, a game where they displayed their potent offense.
Tampa Bay is projected to start Ryan Pepiot, who has had a solid season despite a 4-6 win/loss record. His ERA of 3.11 indicates he’s been effective, and he’s coming off a strong performance where he pitched 8 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. However, his projected metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, particularly with a concerning average of 4.8 hits allowed per game.
On the other side, Detroit will counter with Brant Hurter, who has struggled with consistency this season. His projection of only 2.1 innings pitched today signals potential issues, especially given that he allowed 1 earned run in just 1 inning during his last start. The Tigers’ offense, ranked 7th in MLB, will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes from Pepiot, especially with their best hitter performing well lately, boasting a .287 batting average and an OPS of .867.
From a betting perspective, the Rays have a moneyline of -135, suggesting they are favored to win, while the Tigers sit at +115. The projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.50 runs for the Rays, reflecting confidence in their offensive capabilities. With both teams eager to secure a win, this matchup promises to deliver plenty of action for fans and bettors alike.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Parker Meadows is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Detroit Tigers – 2H MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)In his previous start, Ryan Pepiot was firing on all cylinders and put up 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jose Caballero has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph dropping to 75.5-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+12.73 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+18.40 Units / 92% ROI)