Uncover the Game Forecast: Royals vs D-Backs Head-to-Head Analysis 7/06/25

Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On July 6, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Kansas City Royals at Chase Field for the third game of their series. The Diamondbacks are coming off a strong performance, having secured a decisive 7-1 victory over the Royals just yesterday. With a record of 44-45, the Diamondbacks are having an average season, while the Royals sit at 42-48, marking them as below average this year.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Anthony DeSclafani for the Diamondbacks and Michael Lorenzen for the Royals. DeSclafani, who has yet to start a game this season, has a 4.82 ERA and is projected to pitch only 4.7 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs. His low walk rate could be a double-edged sword against a Royals lineup that struggles to draw walks, ranking 1st in least walks in MLB. Meanwhile, Lorenzen, with a 4.95 ERA and a 4-8 record, has started 17 games this season and is projected to allow 3.1 earned runs over about 5.3 innings.

The Diamondbacks boast one of the strongest offenses, ranking 3rd in MLB, which could exploit Lorenzen’s vulnerabilities as a high-flyball pitcher. The D-Backs have hit 132 home runs this season, placing them 4th overall, and will look to capitalize on any mistakes made by Lorenzen. On the other hand, the Royals’ offense ranks 28th in MLB, struggling significantly with power, having only hit 61 home runs this year.

With the Diamondbacks as betting favorites at -150 and an implied team total of 5.17 runs, they appear well-positioned to continue their momentum against a Royals team that will need a standout performance to turn the tide.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Anthony DeSclafani – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Anthony DeSclafani in the 19th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Alek Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 77 games (+29.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 64% ROI)