Uncover the Game Forecast: Rangers vs Yankees Match Preview – 5/20/25

Texas Rangers

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Texas Rangers on May 20, 2025, both teams are looking to turn their respective fortunes. The Yankees currently sit at 27-19, enjoying a solid season, while the Rangers are just above .500 at 25-23. This matchup features the Yankees’ potent offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, going against a Rangers lineup that has struggled significantly, holding a dismal rank of 27th.

In their last outings, the Yankees defeated the Houston Astros 8-2 on May 18, showcasing their offensive prowess, while the Rangers fell short in a close 4-3 loss to the Kansas City Royals. This game marks the first in a series between these two clubs, and the stakes are high for both teams to gain momentum moving forward.

On the mound, the Yankees will send Will Warren, a right-handed pitcher whose performance has been average, sporting a 4.61 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP. Despite being ranked 114th among starting pitchers, he projects to allow only 2.4 earned runs today, which bodes well against a Rangers offense that ranks 27th. On the other side, Patrick Corbin, the left-handed starter for the Rangers, has a strong 3.35 ERA but comes with concerns about his luck, indicated by a higher xFIP of 4.43. Corbin’s tendency to generate fly balls could be exploited by the Yankees’ power hitters, who have already blasted 79 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league.

With the Yankees’ bullpen ranked 6th and the Rangers’ at 27th, the impending matchup gives the Yankees a significant edge. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the competitive nature of both teams. However, with the Yankees as -195 favorites and an implied team total of 4.90 runs, they seem well-positioned to capitalize on their current form and the Rangers’ shortcomings.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 63.5% of the time, placing in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joc Pederson is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Will Warren’s 2521-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 95th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Extreme groundball bats like DJ LeMahieu are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Patrick Corbin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games (+4.67 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110/-140)
  Patrick Corbin has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.60 Units / 56% ROI)