Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
(-120/+100)-150
As the San Diego Padres prepare to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 1, 2025, at Petco Park, they do so with their eyes firmly set on maintaining their position in the National League playoff race. The Padres currently hold a record of 32-24, showcasing a solid season, while the Pirates languish at 22-37, marking one of the worst starts in the league. In their last outing, the Padres triumphed over the Pirates, adding to the latter’s struggles.
On the mound, San Diego is projected to start Randy Vasquez, who, despite ranking as the 282nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, sports a respectable 3.58 ERA this season. However, his 5.50 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate thus far and could face challenges ahead. Vasquez’s projection suggests he will pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs while striking out an average of 3.8 batters. His ability to induce fly balls may help him against a Pirates lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 29th in home runs.
Conversely, Andrew Heaney will take the hill for Pittsburgh. Heaney, with a 3.41 ERA, also appears to have outperformed his xFIP of 4.41, suggesting potential regression. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, with a similar strikeout rate to Vasquez.
While the Padres rank 14th in overall offensive performance, their strength lies in batting average, sitting 9th in the league. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense ranks a dismal 27th overall, though they boast an impressive 4th rank in stolen bases. With the Padres’ strong bullpen rated 2nd, they are well-positioned to capitalize on their favorable matchup against a struggling Pirates team. This game presents a significant opportunity for San Diego to assert its dominance in the series.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Andrew Heaney’s 89.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 2-mph drop off from last season’s 91.5-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Andrew McCutchen has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last year’s 93-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Randy Vasquez (32.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Pittsburgh’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The San Diego Padres (19.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 43% ROI)