Uncover the Game Forecast: Phillies vs Rockies Head-to-Head Analysis 5/22/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field on May 22, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Rockies are struggling this season with a dismal record of 8-41, while the Phillies are enjoying a successful run at 31-18. In their most recent game on May 21, the Rockies fell to the Phillies by a score of 9-5, marking another setback in what has been a challenging year for the Rockies.

German Marquez is projected to take the mound for Colorado. Unfortunately for the Rockies, Marquez has had a rough season, owning a Win/Loss record of 1-6 and an alarming ERA of 8.78. Despite this, his xFIP of 5.38 suggests he might be due for some positive regression. Marquez’s last outing saw him get rocked for 5 earned runs on 7 hits over just 3 innings.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez is slated to pitch for Philadelphia. With a 2-0 record and an ERA of 5.09, Suarez has been effective but has faced his own challenges. His projections indicate he could allow 3.0 earned runs today, which could be enough against a struggling Rockies offense that ranks 28th in MLB.

The Rockies’ offense has been subpar, ranking 28th in team batting average and 25th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast the 5th best offense in the league, highlighted by their 2nd best team batting average. They are likely to capitalize on Marquez’s struggles, and the projections suggest that the Phillies could score as many as 7.20 runs today. With the game total set high at 11.5 runs, bettors might lean towards Philadelphia continuing their winning ways, particularly given their recent form and the Rockies’ issues on the mound.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Ranger Suarez’s 90.8-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 7th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Nick Castellanos has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-280)
  The best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+210)
  German Marquez is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #5 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Kyle Farmer’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 85.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 80.8-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies batters jointly place 21st- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 92.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games (+15.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 35% ROI)