Uncover the Game Forecast: Phillies vs Astros Head-to-Head Analysis 6/24/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 24, 2025, fans can expect an exciting Interleague matchup between two teams having impressive seasons. The Astros currently sit at 45-33, while the Phillies lead slightly at 47-31. Both squads are in contention for playoff spots, and with the Astros’ recent success, including a standout performance by their best hitter over the last week, expectations are high.

Framber Valdez is projected to take the mound for the Astros, boasting a solid 8-4 record and a 3.09 ERA this season. Though his 3.65 xERA suggests he has had a bit of luck, his ranking as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB signals that he’s still among the elite. He projects to pitch 6.3 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs. However, concerns about his 5.7 hits and 1.8 walks allowed could prove detrimental.

On the opposing side, Ranger Suarez will pitch for the Phillies. Suarez has been effective with a 6-1 record and an excellent 2.20 ERA, placing him 24th in MLB starting pitcher rankings. However, his peripherals indicate he might be overperforming, as his 3.37 xFIP is considerably higher than his current ERA. He typically lasts 5.9 innings and is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs, but his struggles with hits and walks (5.9 and 2.0, respectively) could open the door for the Astros’ offense.

The projections favor the Astros, who are known for their strong lineup, ranking 12th overall in MLB offense, and an impressive 3rd in team batting average. In contrast, the Phillies, despite being 7th in overall ranking, have a considerably low implied team total of 3.49 runs for this game. Given the matchup and the Astros’ slight edge in starting pitching, this game should tilt in Houston’s favor, making them an enticing option for bettors.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Collectively, Philadelphia Phillies hitters have performed well as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 2nd-best in MLB.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Framber Valdez has averaged 19.2 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jose Altuve has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 82.2-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 58 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+12.30 Units / 123% ROI)