Uncover the Game Forecast: Nationals vs Pirates Head-to-Head Analysis 4/17/25

Washington Nationals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On April 17, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals at PNC Park for the fourth game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 7-12 and the Nationals at 7-11. In their last matchup, the Pirates secured a convincing 6-1 victory, while the Nationals faced a similar fate, losing by the same score.

The Pirates are projected to start Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher who has an impressive ERA of 3.00 but holds a Win/Loss record of 0-1 this year. Despite his low Power Rankings position at #204, Heaney’s ability to limit earned runs could be a key factor against a Nationals offense ranked 19th overall. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.2 innings and allow approximately 2.6 earned runs, which aligns with his solid ERA.

On the other side, the Nationals are set to counter with Trevor Williams, who has a troubling ERA of 7.36 and has struggled in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings. Although his xFIP of 3.80 suggests he might be due for better luck, he faces a Pirates lineup that has the 5th highest strikeout rate in MLB, which could work in his favor.

The Pirates’ offense has been underwhelming, ranking 28th in runs scored and batting average, but they do have a strong stolen base game, sitting 6th in that category. Meanwhile, the Nationals provide a more balanced attack, ranking 19th in overall offense.

With the Pirates favored at -145 on the moneyline, they carry an implied team total of 4.31 runs, indicating some confidence in their ability to capitalize on Williams’ struggles. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they look to turn their seasons around.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Trevor Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Alex Call has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Andrew Heaney’s curveball utilization has risen by 19.8% from last season to this one (3.7% to 23.5%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Andrew McCutchen has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season’s 88.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+21.00 Units / 233% ROI)