Uncover the Game Forecast: Giants vs Royals Match Preview – 9/20/24

San Francisco Giants

@

Kansas City Royals

As the Royals and Giants gear up for their matchup on September 20, 2024, both teams are navigating different paths this season. The Kansas City Royals have been putting together an above-average season with an 82-71 record, looking to keep their momentum going in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants find themselves with a 74-79 record and are not contending for a postseason spot.

The Royals will be leaning on Michael Wacha, who is enjoying a strong season with a 13-7 record and a solid 3.29 ERA. Wacha’s advanced metrics suggest a bit of luck, but he’s consistently delivered for Kansas City. His ability to limit walks is a key factor against a Giants offense that ranks 21st in MLB power rankings. On the other side, Mason Black will take the mound for the Giants. While his 7.07 ERA paints a grim picture, there’s room for optimism as his xFIP indicates potential improvement.

Offensively, Kansas City boasts the 13th-best lineup, highlighted by Bobby Witt Jr.’s impressive season. Witt Jr. leads the charge, sporting a .331 batting average and 32 home runs, underlining the Royals’ strength in batting average and their capability to steal bases.

In their last outing, both the Royals and Giants faced defeats against the Tigers and Orioles, respectively. Despite the setbacks, Kansas City’s balanced offense and Wacha’s solid form make them favored, with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, aligns with this, placing the Royals as favorites with a 56% chance of victory. However, it also hints at potential value in betting on the Giants, given a 4% higher win probability than the odds suggest.

As these two teams clash at Kauffman Stadium, the combination of Wacha’s reliable arm and Kansas City’s offensive tools could prove decisive in the opening game of this interleague series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Mason Black – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Mason Black’s 2129-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 20th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Mason Black – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Michael Wacha has tallied 17.3 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last year’s 90.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals bats as a group have been one of the best in baseball this year (3rd-) in regard to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 78 games at home (+8.14 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 71 away games (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)