Uncover the Game Forecast: Brewers vs Giants Match Preview – 4/21/25

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

On April 21, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park for the first game of their series. The Giants enter this matchup with a solid 14-8 record, showcasing their competitive edge in the National League, while the Brewers sit at 12-10, having an above-average season but struggling to find consistency.

Robbie Ray is projected to take the mound for the Giants. Despite being ranked 152nd among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings—a clear indication of below-average performance—Ray boasts a perfect 3-0 record this season. He has a 4.19 ERA, signaling that while he has had some success, underlying metrics suggest he could be due for a regression. His projections for this game indicate he’ll pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters, although he is expected to give up a concerning 4.9 hits.

Quinn Priester will start for the Brewers, bringing a strong 0.90 ERA over two starts this season. However, the projections reveal that his 4.09 xFIP hints at potential struggles ahead. Priester, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Giants offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts, which could favor him despite his overall below-average standing.

The Giants’ offense, ranked 18th in MLB, has been inconsistent, particularly with a low batting average of 22nd in the league. Conversely, the Brewers rank 23rd in overall offensive performance but have found some success with a 17th-place batting average.

With the Giants favored at -145, there’s an opportunity for them to capitalize on their strong bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, while the Brewers will need to rely on their 8th ranked bullpen to keep the game close. The projected game total sits at an average 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Given that flyball batters have a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester and his 51.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today’s outing being matched up with 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Robbie Ray who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Robbie Ray meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 162 games (+2.82 Units / 1% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)