Uncover the Game Forecast: Brewers vs Giants Match Preview – 4/21/25

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park on April 21, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their respective recent performances. The Giants, currently sitting at 14-8, are having a strong season but are coming off a narrow 5-4 loss to the Brewers in yesterday’s game, while the Brewers improved to 12-10 after a decisive 14-1 victory over the Giants. This matchup marks the first in a series between these two National League rivals.

On the mound, the Giants are set to start Robbie Ray, who has a solid 3-0 record this season. Despite ranking as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Ray has allowed an average of 2.7 earned runs per game. However, his 5.28 xFIP suggests he might not be as fortunate going forward. In contrast, the Brewers will counter with Quinn Priester, who has been impressive with a 0.90 ERA so far this season, but his overall performance metrics indicate he may be due for regression.

Offensively, the Giants rank 18th in the league, which is considered average, while the Brewers are struggling at 21st overall. With the Giants’ best hitter currently on a hot streak, boasting a .400 batting average over the last week, they may have the edge in capitalizing on Priester’s low strikeout rate against their high-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th in the league.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, and the Giants are favored with a moneyline of -140. Given their solid pitching and the potential for offensive fireworks, the Giants might exceed their projected team total of 4.25 runs, making them a team to watch in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given that flyball batters have a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester and his 51.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today’s outing being matched up with 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Robbie Ray who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Robbie Ray meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+8.10 Units / 162% ROI)