Uncover the Game Forecast: Athletics vs Rays Match Preview – 7/1/25

Athletics

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Tampa Bay Rays

On July 1, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Oakland Athletics at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the second game of their series. Tampa Bay currently holds a solid record of 47-38 and is enjoying a strong season, while Oakland struggles significantly at 35-52. The Rays are not only contending for a playoff spot but also boast the 8th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd best team batting average. In contrast, the Athletics rank 14th in offensive production and have a below-average team in terms of stolen bases.

In their last matchup, the Rays emerged victorious, adding to their momentum. Tampa Bay is projected to start Shane Baz, who has been above average this season, ranking as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Baz has a Win/Loss record of 8-3 and a slightly above-average ERA of 4.37. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out an average of 6.2 batters. However, his projections also indicate a concerning 4.9 hits and 1.8 walks allowed.

On the other hand, Oakland will counter with Jeffrey Springs, who is having a rough year, with a Win/Loss record of 6-6 and an ERA of 4.30. Springs is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs while striking out only 4.5 batters, which is below average. Both pitchers are facing offenses that have shown contrasting abilities, making this matchup particularly intriguing.

The Rays enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their projected team total of 4.74 runs. The Athletics, now considered underdogs at +145, have an implied team total of 3.76 runs. With the Rays’ potent offense and a solid bullpen ranking 6th in MLB, they appear well-positioned to continue their winning ways against a struggling Athletics squad.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Jeffrey Springs (36.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 3 FB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball batters like Brent Rooker usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Denzel Clarke, Nicholas Kurtz, Max Muncy).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Shane Baz’s curveball usage has jumped by 9.1% from last year to this one (20.5% to 29.6%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-165)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+11.28 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)