Uncover the Game Forecast: Athletics vs Pirates Head-to-Head Analysis 9/19/25

Athletics

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 19, 2025, both teams are looking to break out of their current slumps. The Pirates sit at 65-88, marking a disappointing season, while the Athletics hold a slightly better record at 72-81, but they too are underperforming. This matchup is crucial for both squads as they aim to salvage some pride in the final stretch of the season.

In their most recent outing, the Athletics fell short in a tightly contested game, while the Pirates continue to struggle offensively, ranking 30th in MLB. This puts pressure on their starting pitcher, Mitch Keller, who is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh. Keller has had a rough season, with a 6-14 record and a 4.13 ERA, but he projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, allowing around 3.0 earned runs. However, his high projected hits allowed (5.9) and walks (1.5) could be problematic against a potent Athletics lineup.

On the other side, Luis Severino is set to start for Oakland. Despite a 4.82 ERA and a 6-11 record, projections suggest he may have been unlucky this season, as his FIP is 0.56 points lower than his ERA. Severino’s performance will be critical, especially with the Athletics’ offense ranking 6th overall and 4th in home runs.

With both teams showing inconsistency, the Pirates’ average implied team total of 4.25 runs is matched by the Athletics. This sets the stage for what could be an evenly matched contest, especially given the Pirates’ average bullpen ranking. Bettors might find value in the Athletics, who, despite their struggles, have a more potent offense and a slightly better pitching matchup.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has used his secondary pitches 11.5% more often this year (51.2%) than he did last year (39.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nick Kurtz has been lucky this year, posting a .421 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .353 — a .068 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will be challenged by the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Mitch Keller’s 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph decrease from last year’s 94.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 144 games (+24.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Athletics – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-150/+120)
  Luis Severino has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.70 Units / 65% ROI)