Uncover the Game Forecast: Athletics vs Blue Jays Head-to-Head Analysis 8/11/24

Oakland Athletics

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to take on the Oakland Athletics on August 11, 2024, the stakes are particularly poignant following a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Athletics edged out the Blue Jays 1-0. This game marks the third in the series, and both teams are seeking to find some momentum amid below-average records—Toronto sitting at 54-63 and Oakland at 49-69.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are set to start Chris Bassitt, who has been solid this season, evidenced by his 3.95 ERA. Bassitt, who is ranked as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB, projects to pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters on average. This makes him a difficult matchup for an Athletics lineup that has struggled lately.

In contrast, the Athletics will counter with JP Sears, who has been less effective, holding a 4.35 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 18.2%. His flyball tendencies may work in his favor against a Blue Jays offense that has found it challenging to generate power, ranking 27th in home runs this season. The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 20th overall, but they have been led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been hot recently, showcasing a .409 batting average and a 1.207 OPS over the last week.

The leading MLB projection system shows the Blue Jays as a significant favorite in this matchup, with a projected win probability of 62%. With an average Game Total of 8.0 runs, expectations are that this could be the game that allows Toronto to snap their losing streak and build some momentum as the season winds down.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears will “start” for Oakland Athletics in today’s game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.6 mph compared to last year’s 94.9 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 9.3% Barrel% of the Oakland Athletics ranks them as the #4 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Chris Bassitt has utilized his four-seamer 5.8% less often this season (3.5%) than he did last year (9.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a .338 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 100th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+19.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+135)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 43 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)