Uncover the Game Forecast: Astros vs Cardinals Head-to-Head Analysis 4/16/25

Houston Astros

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Houston Astros are set to clash in a pivotal Interleague matchup on April 16, 2025, at Busch Stadium. Both teams enter this game with an identical record of 8-9, and neither has been able to find their rhythm this season, sitting below average in the standings. The Cardinals will look to shake off a disappointing 2-0 loss to the Astros in their last game on April 15, while the Astros hope to build on their recent success with the same scoreline.

On the mound, the Cardinals will send Steven Matz to the hill, a left-handed pitcher who has an impressive ERA of 2.31 despite being projected for a short outing of around 3.9 innings. However, the projections suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 4.76 xFIP indicates he’s had some good fortune so far. Matz’s lack of starting experience this season (0 starts, 5 appearances) raises concerns, but his excellent strikeout rate has been a bright spot.

Opposing him is Ronel Blanco, a right-handed pitcher for the Astros. Blanco carries a 6.94 ERA, which paints a bleak picture of his performance. However, his xFIP of 3.21 suggests he might be better than his numbers indicate, and he recently pitched well in his last start, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs and 7 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Cardinals boast the 1st best batting average in MLB, while the Astros struggle at 21st. Given that the Cardinals’ lineup ranks 4th overall in offensive talent, they are positioned to exploit Blanco’s vulnerabilities. With both teams averaging an implied total of 4.00 runs, expect a tightly contested matchup, but the Cardinals’ potent offense could tip the scales in their favor.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Ronel Blanco is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Barrel% of Jeremy Pena has significantly improved, with an increase from 5.5% last year to 12.8% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Steven Matz – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Steven Matz will be at an advantage being matched up with 9 batters in the projected offense of the opposite hand today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Alec Burleson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order today (.316 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .339 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 87 of their last 162 games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-145/+115)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)