Uncover the Game Forecast: Astros vs Cardinals Head-to-Head Analysis 4/16/25

Houston Astros

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Houston Astros on April 16, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling, each holding a record of 8-9 this season. This Interleague matchup carries significance as the Cardinals aim to gain momentum after a disappointing start, while the Astros are also looking to break free from their below-average performance.

In their last outing, the Cardinals faced the Astros in a tightly contested game, but ultimately fell short, raising the stakes for this rubber match in the series. On the mound, St. Louis is projected to start Steven Matz, who has been effective out of the bullpen with a stellar ERA of 2.31. However, his 4.70 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from some luck, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Matz projects to pitch 4.2 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs, which may not be enough against a team like Houston.

The Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco, whose 6.94 ERA paints a grim picture, though his 3.16 xFIP suggests he might be due for better luck. Blanco has averaged 5.3 innings pitched per game this season, allowing 2.7 earned runs. While both pitchers have their challenges, the Cardinals’ offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, offers a significant advantage. St. Louis boasts the 1st-best team batting average and 7th in home runs, providing a potent threat against an Astros lineup that ranks just 23rd in overall offensive performance.

Betting markets currently show an even moneyline of -110 for both teams, indicating close contest expectations. However, with the projections favoring the Cardinals due to their superior offense, they could very well capitalize on the Astros’ recent struggles and turn their season around.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Ronel Blanco is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Barrel% of Jeremy Pena has significantly improved, with an increase from 5.5% last year to 12.8% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Steven Matz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Steven Matz will be at an advantage being matched up with 8 batters in the projected offense of the opposite hand today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Pedro Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.7-mph mark last season has dropped to 83.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .339 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 87 of their last 162 games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)