Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Guardians vs Twins – Sunday, September 21, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Guardians on September 21, 2025, in the fourth game of their series. Currently sitting at 66-89, the Twins are enduring a disappointing season, while the Guardians sport a much more impressive 84-71 record, demonstrating their status as an above-average team. In their last matchup, the Twins fell short, adding pressure as they look to regroup against a competitive divisional rival.

On the mound, the Twins will feature Simeon Woods Richardson, a right-handed pitcher with a Power Rankings position of 152nd out of approximately 350 in MLB. Woods Richardson has shown some flashes this season, accumulating a 7-4 record with a 4.31 ERA, which is average. However, his projected numbers suggest a tougher outing may be ahead, as he’s expected to allow 2.3 earned runs and strike out only 4.4 batters on average today. With a propensity for giving up 4.5 hits and 1.6 walks per start, his matchup against the Guardians’ lineup will be crucial.

Meanwhile, the Guardians will send out Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher ranked 83rd. With a more favorable 5-3 record and an impressive 3.27 ERA, Cantillo is projected to deliver an effective performance, albeit with a high expected hits rate of 4.7 and 1.9 walks. The Guardians’ offense, though struggling overall—ranking 29th in MLB—has shown flashes of power recently, propelled by strong performances from their best hitters.

In this matchup, betting markets lean slightly toward the Guardians, with a moneyline of -125. However, with the Twins’ ability to excel in the power department (12th in home runs), they could make this contest more competitive than anticipated. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the expected close nature of this divisional clash.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Joey Cantillo will record an average of 2 singles today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Bo Naylor is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Bo Naylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Simeon Woods Richardson’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (45.7 vs. 40.2% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Trevor Larnach has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 99.2-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Edouard Julien, Ryan Fitzgerald).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 88 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 66 games (+21.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)