Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Braves vs Pirates – Saturday, May 10, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On May 10, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup, as both teams struggle to find their footing early in the season. The Pirates currently sit at 13-26, while the Braves are slightly ahead at 18-20. Both squads are looking to turn their seasons around, especially after the Pirates faced a tough loss yesterday.

Andrew Heaney, projected to start for the Pirates, has had a rocky campaign thus far, holding an impressive ERA of 3.18 but a concerning Win/Loss record of 2-3 over his 7 starts. His underlying metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as his 3.90 xFIP indicates potential regression. Heaney’s projections for the game suggest he will pitch around 5.2 innings while giving up approximately 3.0 earned runs, which could be problematic given the Pirates’ 28th-ranked offense in terms of run production.

On the other side, AJ Smith-Shawver takes the mound for the Braves. Despite having a solid ERA of 3.00 over 5 starts, his 4.01 xFIP points to possible struggles going forward. The Braves offense ranks 16th overall, but their below-average batting average of .240 raises concerns about their consistency at the plate.

With the Pirates’ offense being one of the worst in MLB, this matchup may lean in favor of the Braves, who, while not firing on all cylinders themselves, possess the potential to capitalize on the Pirates’ weaknesses. The projections give Atlanta an average implied team total of 4.54 runs, while the Pirates sit at 3.96. Given the overall context, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for the Braves to assert their superiority over a struggling Pirates team.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• AJ Smith-Shawver – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  As a result of his reverse platoon split, AJ Smith-Shawver will have a tough challenge matching up with 6 hitters in the projected lineup who bat from the same side in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past 14 days, Sean Murphy’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #8 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has fallen 2.2 mph this season (89.3 mph) below where it was last year (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Andrew McCutchen has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)