Twins vs Red Sox Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Friday May 2, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Minnesota Twins on May 2, 2025, at Fenway Park in what marks the first game of their series. As the season progresses, the Red Sox have established themselves with a record of 17-16, indicating an above-average start, while the Twins sit at 13-19, struggling significantly.

Recently, the Red Sox had a standout performance from their best hitter, who recorded 9 hits and 5 RBIs over the last week, showcasing a powerful offense that ranks 6th in MLB. This offensive prowess could pose a challenge to Twins’ pitcher Joe Ryan, who enters this matchup as the 25th best starting pitcher according to advanced Power Rankings. Ryan is known for his high strikeout rate (29.1 K%), a statistic that aligns well against the Red Sox’s tendency to strike out frequently, as they rank 2nd in the league in that category.

On the mound for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who has a perfect 2-0 record this season alongside a solid 3.27 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.89 suggests he could be riding a bit of luck, which might catch up to him. Bello typically allows 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks per game, both of which could come back to haunt him against a team that, despite its struggles, has players capable of capitalizing on mistakes.

The current odds suggest a balanced matchup, with both teams sitting at -110 on the moneyline and an impressive total of 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. As the Red Sox look to leverage their strong home offense against a Twins team that ranks 22nd in overall offensive output, this game promises to be a compelling contest for bettors and fans alike.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Joe Ryan has generated a substantial increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2212 rpm over the entire season to 2262 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Brooks Lee is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 20.9° figure is among the highest in the majors this year (#1 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Brayan Bello will allow an average of 1.5 singles in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+240/-330)
  Rafael Devers will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+9.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Trevor Story has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 29% ROI)