Twins vs Rangers Bets and Betting Trends – 8/18/24

Minnesota Twins

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers host the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field on August 18, 2024, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Rangers, currently sitting at 56-68, are having a challenging season, while the Twins, with a strong record of 70-53, are well-positioned in the playoff race. In their last matchup, the Rangers fell to the Twins by a score of 5-2, marking a disappointing trend for Texas.

On the mound, Tyler Mahle is projected to start for the Rangers. Despite his excellent ERA of 2.79, he has struggled with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 this season and a concerning 4.91 xFIP, suggesting he may have been a bit fortunate so far. Mahle projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs on average, while striking out 5.3 batters. However, his projections indicate he could be in for a tough outing against a potent Twins lineup.

Pablo Lopez, the Twins’ starter, has established himself as one of the league’s more reliable pitchers, ranking 22nd among all starting pitchers. With an 11-8 record this season and a 4.67 ERA, Lopez’s 3.32 xFIP suggests he might perform even better than his current numbers indicate. He’s coming off a solid outing where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs.

The projections favor the Rangers slightly, giving them a projected win probability of 56%, which is notably higher than what the betting markets suggest. With the Rangers’ offense ranked 24th in the league, they will need a strong performance from Mahle and an offensive spark to overcome the Twins’ 6th ranked attack. With both teams hungry for a win, fans can expect a competitive matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Tallying 93.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Pablo Lopez checks in at the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Matt Wallner has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101-mph average to last year’s 97.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota has not been good at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (90.3 mph) ranks among the league’s worst: #26 in baseball this year.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Tyler Mahle has been lucky since the start of last season, posting a 3.06 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.12 — a 1.06 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Wyatt Langford has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 10.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 21.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 101 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-160)
  Edouard Julien has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)