Top Player Prop Picks for Reds vs Pirates – May 20, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On May 20, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates sit at 15-33, struggling significantly this season, while the Reds have managed a more respectable 25-24. Yesterday, the Reds decisively took the first game, defeating the Pirates by a score of 7-1, increasing Pittsburgh’s woes and further emphasizing their underwhelming performance.

Pirates’ pitcher Bailey Falter is projected to take the mound against the Reds’ Nick Martinez. While Falter’s ERA stands at a slightly above-average 4.02, his recent stats hint at less favorable outcomes; he has an underwhelming 4.77 xFIP, suggesting he’s been somewhat fortunate thus far. In contrast, Nick Martinez has been solid, showcasing a good 3.66 ERA and coming off a strong 7-inning shutout performance in his last start.

The match-up heavily favors the Reds, particularly with the Pirates’ offense ranking 29th in MLB across several categories, including batting average and home runs. This aligns with their low implied team total of 3.67 runs for today’s game. On the other hand, the Reds rank 12th in offensive performance, buoyed by their high-scoring capabilities, as seen in their last game.

Despite the odds leaning towards the Reds, the projections suggest that Bailey Falter’s ability to limit strikeouts may play to his advantage against Cincinnati’s high-strikeout lineup. As the series continues, the performance of both starting pitchers will be critical, especially with the Pirates aiming to shake off their recent struggles and find some rhythm at home.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Pittsburgh’s #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jose Trevino, the Reds’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Bailey Falter’s four-seamer usage has dropped by 7.2% from last year to this one (48.5% to 41.3%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 7th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Joey Bart has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)