Top Player Prop Picks for Mariners vs Orioles – August 12, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 12, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Orioles are struggling this season with a record of 53-65, while the Mariners are in a much stronger position at 66-53. Last night, the Orioles fell to the Mariners by a close score of 3-2, and they’ll be hoping to turn the tide in this series opener.

On the mound, the Orioles will send Dean Kremer to the hill. Kremer has had an underwhelming season, ranking 138th among starting pitchers with a mediocre ERA of 4.35. His last outing was uneventful, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, and striking out 6 batters. The projections suggest that Kremer will struggle today, projecting him to allow an average of 3.2 earned runs and 5.6 hits.

In contrast, the Mariners will counter with George Kirby, who has been one of the standout pitchers this season, ranking 25th in MLB with an impressive ERA of 4.04. Kirby’s last start was strong, as he pitched 6 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs while striking out 9 batters. The projections are favorable for Kirby, indicating that he should allow around 2.8 earned runs today, which bodes well for the Mariners’ chances.

Offensively, the Mariners have the edge, ranking 12th in MLB, bolstered by their power-hitting capabilities, including a remarkable 3rd in home runs. The Orioles, on the other hand, rank 21st in offense and 22nd in batting average, making it tough for them to keep up.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, the Mariners are favored to win, and with their strong lineup and pitching advantage, they look poised to continue their winning ways against a struggling Orioles squad.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Tallying 92.5 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, George Kirby places in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jorge Polanco is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Dean Kremer has utilized his four-seam fastball 6% less often this season (26.1%) than he did last year (32.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  Ryan Mountcastle has averaged 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Ryan Noda, Greg Allen).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 100 games (+13.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 112 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 36% ROI)