Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Padres – Saturday, May 31st, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park on May 31, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Padres, sitting at 32-23, are enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates struggle at 21-37, marking a stark contrast in performance. In their last matchup on May 30, the Padres edged out the Pirates 3-2, further highlighting the disparities between these two teams.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, despite a less-than-ideal Win/Loss record of 1-3. Cease has a solid strikeout rate of 29.2%, which is promising against a Pirates lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts. His projected performance today includes an average of 5.6 innings pitched, 2.1 earned runs, and 7.1 strikeouts, showcasing his potential to dominate this matchup.

In contrast, Bailey Falter is slated to pitch for the Pirates. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.47, his 16.8% strikeout rate poses challenges against the Padres’ low-strikeout offense, which ranks 1st in MLB for fewest strikeouts. Falter’s difficulties are compounded by a projected allowance of 3.0 earned runs and 5.6 hits, which could spell trouble for Pittsburgh.

Offensively, the Padres have been average overall but excel in batting average, ranking 9th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense ranks 27th, struggling to generate consistent run production. This matchup presents a significant opportunity for the Padres, who are favored with a moneyline of -220 and an implied team total of 4.43 runs, indicating strong expectations for their offensive output.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Dylan Cease’s four-seamer rate has dropped by 6.9% from last season to this one (43.5% to 36.6%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  From last season to this one, Luis Arraez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.9 mph to 84.6 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The San Diego Padres (19.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-140)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 44% ROI)
• Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Alexander Canario has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)