Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Pirates – 06/07/2024

New York Mets

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The second game in the series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets takes place today at PNC Park. The Pirates, coming off a commanding 14-2 win over these same Mets yesterday, look to carry that momentum forward. Despite the victory, the Pirates’ below-average season record of 42-45 leaves them with little room for error. Meanwhile, the Mets, with a slightly better but still average record of 42-44, are hoping to bounce back.

The Pirates will send Bailey Falter to the mound. Falter, a left-hander, is having a challenging season, ranking as the 214th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a 4-6 record and a 3.87 ERA, his peripheral stats suggest he’s been fortunate thus far, evidenced by a 4.64 xFIP. Falter’s projections for today are not encouraging; he’s expected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.2 walks on average.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with David Peterson, another lefty who has been slightly better, holding a 3-0 record and a 3.51 ERA. However, Peterson’s xFIP of 4.63 indicates that he, too, has been lucky. He’s projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 2.1 walks on average.

The Pirates’ offense has been struggling, ranking 28th in MLB, but they showed signs of life yesterday. Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot, leading the team with 16 home runs and a .280 batting average. Michael A. Taylor has also been hot over the last week, boasting a .625 batting average and 1.625 OPS in his last five games.

Conversely, the Mets’ offense ranks 10th in MLB, powered by Francisco Lindor and the team’s 4th-best home run tally. Lindor has been consistent, contributing 15 home runs and 16 stolen bases this season. Mark Vientos has been the standout over the last week with two home runs and a .292 batting average.

The betting markets see this as a close game, with the Mets having a slight edge at -135, implying a 55% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, corroborates this, giving the Mets a 55% chance to win. With both pitchers projected to regress and the Pirates’ offense showing signs of life, today’s matchup promises to be intriguing.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  David Peterson has gone to his sinker 6.7% more often this season (31.3%) than he did last year (24.6%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 82-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Mets have been the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Bailey Falter’s 91.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph rise from last year’s 90.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Josh Palacios tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 team in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)