Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Cubs vs White Sox – Saturday, August 10th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on August 10, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, the stakes are higher for the Cubs, who are in a tight race for a Wild Card spot. The Cubs are currently sitting at a 58-60 record, while the White Sox have struggled immensely this season with a dismal 28-90 record. Just yesterday, the White Sox lost a closely contested game against the Cubs, falling 7-6, which marked another setback in their already challenging year.

In terms of pitching, the matchup features Chris Flexen for the White Sox and Justin Steele for the Cubs. Flexen’s performance this season has been underwhelming, with a Win/Loss record of 2-11 and an ERA of 5.53, ranking him as the 287th best starting pitcher in MLB. In his last start, Flexen was particularly shaky, allowing 6 earned runs over just 2 innings. On the other hand, Steele has been a bright spot for the Cubs, boasting a 3.33 ERA and a solid performance in his last outing, where he pitched 7 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs.

The projections suggest that the Cubs will have a significant edge in this matchup, with an implied team total of 5.13 runs compared to the White Sox’s low projection of just 3.37 runs. Given the disparity in offensive rankings— the White Sox rank 30th in MLB, while the Cubs sit at 22nd— it’s clear that Chicago’s North Siders have the upper hand.

With Flexen facing a low-walk, aggressive Cubs offense and Steele’s ability to limit runs, the Cubs have every reason to feel confident heading into this game. Betting on the Cubs seems prudent, especially given the potential value in their projected win probability exceeding the current market odds.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Recording 18 outs per GS this year on average, Justin Steele ranks in the 92nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Michael Busch has big-time power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Flexen has a pitch-to-contact profile (17th percentile K%) — great news for Busch.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.6% more often this season (62.1%) than he did last season (54.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-220)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+17.30 Units / 31% ROI)