Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Blue Jays vs Pirates – Wednesday, August 20th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 20, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Toronto Blue Jays at PNC Park in a notable Interleague matchup. The Blue Jays are currently riding high, boasting a record of 74-53, which places them among the top contenders in MLB. In contrast, the Pirates sit at 53-74, languishing at the bottom of the standings with one of the league’s worst overall performances. The last time these teams faced off, the Pirates took a difficult loss, which highlights the challenge they face in trying to compete with a surging Blue Jays lineup.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Johan Oviedo, a right-handed pitcher whose performance this season has been less than stellar. Oviedo carries an abysmal ERA of 18.00 and ranks as the 156th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While he does hold a high strikeout rate of 37.5%, he will find himself facing the Blue Jays, who have the league’s least strikeout-prone offense. This matchup could very well play to Toronto’s advantage, given the Pirates’ struggles both on the mound and at the plate.

The Pirates’ offense ranks 30th in batting average and home runs, while the Blue Jays shine with the 2nd best offense in MLB, bolstered by a league-leading batting average. This stark contrast poses a challenge for Pittsburgh’s beleaguered lineup, which has been unable to find its rhythm. Projections estimate that Oviedo will struggle to keep the Blue Jays in check.

With the Blue Jays favored to win, and an average total set at 8.5 runs, betting enthusiasts might find that the odds favor Toronto given their recent form and robust offensive capabilities. Overall, this game serves as a critical test for both teams, with the Blue Jays looking to maintain their momentum and the Pirates searching for signs of life in a difficult season.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Considering the 0.27 discrepancy between Chris Bassitt’s 8.57 K/9 and his 8.29 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see worse results going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  In his last start, Johan Oviedo was firing on all cylinders and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  As it relates to his batting average, Jack Suwinski has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .169 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .225.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 121 games (+20.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 90 games (+20.69 Units / 18% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 62% ROI)