Tigers vs Yankees Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Thursday September 11, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on September 11, 2025, both teams enter the game with solid performances this season. The Yankees hold an 80-65 record, while Detroit stands at 84-62, showcasing the Tigers’ great form as they vie for a stronger postseason positioning. In their last meeting, the Yankees suffered a lopsided defeat to the Tigers, losing 11-1, which adds a layer of urgency for New York as they look to rebound.

On the mound, the Yankees will send Cam Schlitter to the hill, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of promise with a 3.24 ERA this season. While his performance ranks him as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics indicate he might have been a bit fortunate this year. Schlitter’s average projections suggest he will pitch about 5.0 innings today, which raises concerns given that he allows an alarming 4.3 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

Tyler Holton, the likely starter for Detroit, is a left-handed pitcher with an interesting history this year, having thrown just 1.5 innings on average in his starts. His projections show he can potentially limit damage, allowing 0.8 earned runs with a concerning 1.3 hits and 0.6 walks. The matchup in this series could hinge on how well the Yankees’ powerful offense, ranked 1st in MLB for home runs, can exploit Schlitter’s limitations against a mediocre Tigers bullpen, ranked 21st overall.

With a Game Total currently set at 8.5 runs, and the Yankees positioned as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, there’s a sense that New York could capitalize on their offensive prowess, especially following a humbling loss. This is a critical game for the Yankees as they attempt to shift momentum back in their favor.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Colt Keith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph grades out in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cody Bellinger is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Detroit Tigers has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Austin Slater hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 74 of their last 130 games (+15.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 39% ROI)