Tigers vs Yankees Betting Guide – 9/09/25

Detroit Tigers

@

New York Yankees

On September 9, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons; the Yankees sit at 80-63 while the Tigers lead slightly at 82-62. The Yankees’ potent offense ranks 1st in MLB, showcasing their ability to hit home runs and generate runs. In contrast, the Tigers have an average ranking of 11th in offense, which should make for an interesting battle.

In their last game, the Yankees’ pitcher Will Warren will take the mound. Warren has been average this year, with a record of 8-6 and an ERA of 4.28. He projects to pitch around 5.0 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs. Notably, Warren’s control has been a concern, as he projects to allow 1.8 walks on average, which could be problematic against a Tigers lineup that has struggled to capitalize on free passes.

On the other side, Casey Mize is set to start for Detroit. Mize has a strong record of 13-5 and a solid ERA of 3.87, indicating he has performed well this season. However, his projections suggest he may struggle today, as he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. Mize’s low walk rate could be an advantage against the Yankees, who typically draw walks at a high rate.

With the Yankees being favored at -155, they carry a high implied total of 4.66 runs, reflecting confidence in their offense. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive atmosphere. As both teams look to gain an edge, this matchup will be crucial in shaping their respective seasons.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Casey Mize to throw 83 pitches in today’s game (10th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kerry Carpenter has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 101.5-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given his large platoon split, Will Warren meets a tough challenge being matched up with 6 bats in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.411) may lead us to conclude that Ben Rice has had bad variance on his side this year with his .349 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  In today’s game, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+15.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 81 of their last 141 games (+18.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Parker Meadows has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)