Tigers vs Royals Picks and Betting Odds – 6/1/2025

Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals

On June 1, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Detroit Tigers in the third game of their series. The Royals, currently 31-28, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Tigers hold a solid 38-21 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the league. The Royals are coming off a 1-0 victory against the Tigers in their previous matchup, which highlighted their pitching prowess but also exposed their offensive struggles.

Kris Bubic is projected to take the mound for Kansas City. Bubic has been impressive this season, boasting a 1.45 ERA and a solid 5-2 win/loss record, making him the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his peripherals suggest he may be due for some regression, with a 3.36 xFIP indicating he could face challenges going forward. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs on average, which is a strong outing.

On the other side, Keider Montero will start for Detroit. Montero has struggled this year, with a 4.54 ERA and a ranking among the worst pitchers in the league. He projects to allow 3.1 earned runs over 5.1 innings, which could be problematic against a Royals offense that, while ranked 26th overall, has shown flashes of potential.

The betting odds favor the Royals with a moneyline of -150, suggesting a high implied team total of 4.60 runs. Given the projected matchup, the Royals may find an edge in Bubic’s strikeout ability against a strikeout-prone Tigers lineup, making this an intriguing game for bettors looking for value in the Royals’ favor.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Keider Montero’s 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.8-mph decline from last season’s 94.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Baez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Kris Bubic.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Recording 18.6 outs per outing this year on average, Kris Bubic checks in at the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Drew Waters – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Drew Waters has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 56 games (+23.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+17.48 Units / 26% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)