Tigers vs Orioles Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday June 11, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles

On June 11, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Detroit Tigers for the second game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Tigers, with a solid record of 44-24, are coming off a win against the Orioles, who have struggled this season with a record of just 26-39. The matchup is crucial for the Orioles, who are looking to turn their season around, but they’ll face an uphill battle against a powerful Tigers lineup that ranks 8th in MLB in offensive performance.

For this game, the Orioles are set to start Zach Eflin, who has shown flashes of potential with a 5-2 record and a 4.47 ERA this season. Although Eflin ranks as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections suggest he may have been unlucky with his performance thus far and could improve. His average outing is projected to last 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs. Yet, he might struggle today against a Tigers offense that excels at generating runs, evidenced by their 10th rank in home runs this season.

Opposing him will be Casey Mize, who boasts an impressive 2.91 ERA and a 6-1 record. Mize has been a steady performer, but the projections indicate he’s benefited from some good fortune thus far. His recent outing on June 5 wasn’t perfect, as he allowed 6 hits and 4 walks, yet he managed to limit the damage to just 2 earned runs.

The Orioles’ offense has been rated as the 21st best in MLB and struggles with consistency, particularly in their last game where they lost 5-3. Baltimore’s best hitter has an OPS of .771, which is below average, while the Tigers’ top bat leads with an OPS of .849.

As the Orioles are under pressure to claw back from a disappointing season, they have a slightly higher moneyline set at -125 with an estimated team total of 4.66 runs for this matchup. Given the context, today’s game could serve as a pivotal moment for the Orioles if they can capitalize on Eflin’s potential while facing a high-strikeout Tigers offense that he may have an advantage over.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Casey Mize’s 93.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.7-mph fall off from last year’s 95.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jake Rogers’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Zach Eflin is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue among all parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Cedric Mullins generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Casey Mize.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+6.40 Units / 107% ROI)