Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
(-105/-115)-110
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the Detroit Tigers on September 7, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a season that hasn’t gone as planned. The Athletics currently sit at 62-80, struggling throughout the year, while the Tigers hold a slightly better record at 71-71. Yesterday, the Athletics managed a nail-biting victory over the Tigers, winning 7-6, so they’ll be eager to keep that energy alive in the second game of this series.
The matchup features Athletics’ left-hander Brady Basso, who has only made three appearances this season without any starts. Despite his struggles, he possesses a 2.75 xFIP, indicating he might have been unlucky and could improve. However, he projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today with 4.6 hits allowed, making the Athletics’ bullpen, ranked 8th in the league, crucial for a win.
On the other side, Brenan Hanifee, the right-handed pitcher for the Tigers, also has limited innings, projecting for just 2.0 innings today. While his recent performance has shown potential, evidenced by a solid last start on August 8 where he allowed no earned runs, he might struggle against an Athletics lineup that ranks 4th in home runs.
The Tigers’ offense lacks consistency, ranking 24th overall and struggling with a batting average of .223. Still, Riley Greene has been a bright spot, and he looks to lead his team against a pitcher who, despite his underlying metrics, has yet to prove himself.
The projections indicate a close contest, with both teams having a 50% implied win probability according to their current moneyline of -110. With the Athletics looking to build on yesterday’s victory and their strong bullpen, they may have the edge, while the Tigers will try to bounce back from their recent loss.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 85-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Detroit Tigers bats as a unit have been among the worst in baseball this year ( 9th-worst) when it comes to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Brady Basso – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Because of his large reverse platoon split, Brady Basso will have a disadvantage facing 6 batters in the projected batting order who share his handedness in this outing.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Tristan Gray – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Hitters such as Tristan Gray with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brenan Hanifee who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Tristan Gray – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tristan Gray in the 2nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (-110)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 69 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+12.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)Lawrence Butler has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 49 games (+18.40 Units / 38% ROI)