Team Stats and Prediction for Pirates vs Braves Matchup 9/26/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Atlanta Braves

On September 26, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Truist Park in the first game of a series that holds significance for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Braves, with a record of 75-84, are having a below-average season, while the Pirates sit at 69-90, marking a particularly rough year for them. Despite their struggles, the Braves enter as betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, reflecting an implied win probability of 59%.

The matchup features Joey Wentz for the Braves, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 220th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Wentz’s ERA stands at a troubling 5.46, but his 4.45 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but a concerning 5.1 hits and 2.1 walks per outing.

On the other side, Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pirates. Keller’s performance has also been lackluster, with a 4.22 ERA that is above average but accompanied by a 6-15 record. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, with a tendency to give up 5.4 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

The Braves’ offense ranks 13th best in MLB, while the Pirates’ offense is at the bottom, ranked 30th. This disparity in offensive firepower may give the Braves an edge, especially considering their best hitter’s recent form, having recorded 9 hits and 9 RBIs over the past week. With an average implied team total of 4.66 runs for the Braves, they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Pirates’ struggles.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Mitch Keller’s slider utilization has risen by 8.2% from last season to this one (25.1% to 33.3%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Joey Wentz was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+14.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+25.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.70 Units / 29% ROI)