Team Stats and Prediction for Brewers vs Twins Matchup 6/20/25

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Minnesota Twins

On June 20, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams come into this matchup with differing recent performances; the Twins showcased their offensive prowess with a commanding 12-5 victory over the Chicago White Sox in their last game on June 19, while the Brewers narrowly edged out the Philadelphia Phillies with an 8-7 win on June 18.

In terms of standings, the Twins hold a .500 record at 37-37, suggesting an average season overall, while the Brewers are above average at 40-35. Joe Ryan, who has been a standout for the Twins, is projected to start. He currently ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a strong 2.93 ERA and an impressive 7-2 win/loss record over 13 starts this season. His last outing saw him go 7 innings with just 2 earned runs, further highlighting his effectiveness on the mound.

Conversely, Jacob Misiorowski, who is set to take the hill for the Brewers, is still finding his footing in the majors with only 1 start this season and a below-average projection. Although he posted an impressive no-hitter in his last outing, his xFIP of 4.92 projects that he may not maintain such success moving forward.

Notably, the Twins’ offense ranks 16th overall and has been bolstered by their best hitter’s recent surge, contributing to a solid offensive showing in the past week. The projections suggest that the Twins should capitalize on Misiorowski’s inexperience, making them the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an average implied team total of 4.08 runs for the game. With the Brewers’ offense struggling, ranking just 23rd overall, they face an uphill battle against Ryan and the Twins’ solid bullpen, which ranks 9th in the league.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Jacob Misiorowski is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Batters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Milwaukee grades out as the #30 club in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (12.6% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Joe Ryan’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (63.3 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Willi Castro is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.22 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.30 Units / 67% ROI)