Team Stats and Insights for Yankees vs Blue Jays Match Preview – 7/3/2025

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup on July 3, 2025, features a pivotal American League East clash as the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Both teams are currently tied with identical records of 48-38, showcasing their competitiveness this season. The stakes are high as every game counts in a tightly contested division.

In their previous encounter, the Blue Jays clinched a thrilling 6-5 victory against the Yankees, with their best hitter performing exceptionally well lately, boasting a .417 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over the last week. This offensive surge could provide a crucial advantage in the upcoming game.

Toronto is projected to send Chris Bassitt to the mound. While Bassitt has had an average season with a 7-4 record and a 4.29 ERA, his 3.61 xFIP suggests he might be poised for better results going forward. He faces Clarke Schmidt, who has been solid for New York with a 4-4 record and an impressive 3.09 ERA. However, Schmidt’s 4.18 xFIP indicates that he might not maintain his current form.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 11th in MLB but stands out with a 4th best ranking in team batting average, which suggests they can put together quality at-bats against the Yankees’ pitching. Conversely, New York’s offense ranks 3rd overall, powered by a potent power game that leads the league in home runs.

Betting odds reflect the tight contest, with Toronto’s moneyline at +105 and New York’s at -125, indicating a slight edge for the Yankees. Given the Blue Jays’ recent momentum and Bassitt’s potential for improvement, this matchup could tilt in favor of Toronto, making them an intriguing option for bettors.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Clarke Schmidt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under Hits
  Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Chris Bassitt has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.87 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.21 — a 0.67 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathan Lukes can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (17.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games (+16.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+15.47 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+6.50 Units / 32% ROI)