Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)-110
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Pirates sit at 70-76, having had a below-average season, while the Royals boast an 80-67 record, indicating an above-average performance. This game marks the first meeting of the series, and both teams will be eager to make a strong statement.
In their last outings, the Pirates emerged victorious against the Miami Marlins, winning 3-1, while the Royals suffered a narrow defeat to the New York Yankees, falling 4-3. The Pirates will send Luis Ortiz to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 3.26 ERA, but advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as evidenced by his 4.76 xFIP. Ortiz has struggled with strikeouts, averaging just 3.8 per game, which could be problematic against the Royals, who rank as the 2nd least strikeout-prone offense in MLB.
On the other hand, Kansas City will counter with Alec Marsh, who has a 4.66 ERA and is known for his high fly-ball rate. This may play into the Pirates’ hands, as they rank 26th in home runs, making it difficult to capitalize on fly balls. The projections indicate a slight edge for the Pirates, forecasting them to score around 4.76 runs, while the Royals are projected to score 4.78 runs.
With both teams fielding pitchers who have their strengths and weaknesses, this matchup promises to be closely contested. The Pirates’ best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, has been consistent all season, while the Royals rely heavily on Bobby Witt Jr. With moneylines set at -110 for both teams, betting markets anticipate a nail-biter at PNC Park.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Alec Marsh – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)With 6 hitters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Alec Marsh ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)In the last week’s worth of games, Salvador Perez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.2% up to 23.5%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Kansas City Royals hitters as a unit have been among the best in baseball this year (3rd-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Luis L. Ortiz’s 94.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 95.3-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Oneil Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.3-mph to 98.2-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+180)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 89 games (+11.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-210)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 139 games (+8.25 Units / 4% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+16.80 Units / 36% ROI)