Tampa Bay Rays
St. Louis Cardinals
(+100/-120)-150
As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack with records of 57-56 and 57-54, respectively. The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, who has been solid this season with a 10-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.72. Gray’s advanced stats suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as his xFIP sits at 2.70, indicating he may perform even better in the future.
On the other hand, the Rays will send Jeffrey Springs to the mound. Springs has struggled this year with an ERA of 4.91 and a concerning xERA of 6.11, suggesting he might be overperforming given his current stats. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Cardinals, especially given Gray’s ranking as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system.
Offensively, the Cardinals have been average, ranking 18th in MLB, while the Rays’ offense has been below average at 20th. However, the Cardinals have been particularly weak in power numbers, sitting 22nd in home runs. In contrast, the Rays have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league, which could be a factor if they can get on base against Gray.
Recent performances show that Tommy Pham has been heating up for St. Louis, boasting a .360 batting average over the last week, while Josh Lowe has been a bright spot for Tampa, hitting .444. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup leans towards a pitching duel, favoring the Cardinals. Given the current odds, St. Louis is favored with a moneyline of -145, suggesting they may have the upper hand in this contest.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+130)Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has been unlucky this year. His .286 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .336.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Tampa Bay’s 88-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #27 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)Sonny Gray has recorded 17.8 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 90th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)Alec Burleson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.2% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 100 games (+16.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)Brendan Donovan has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)