Team Stats and Insights for Phillies vs Rays Match Preview – 5/7/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies at George M. Steinbrenner Field on May 7, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Phillies took the first game of this interleague series with an 8-4 victory, continuing their strong season, while the Rays are struggling at 16-19 and are below average overall.

Shane Baz will take the mound for Tampa Bay, bringing a solid Win/Loss record of 3-1 and a respectable ERA of 3.86. However, he has faced challenges recently, highlighted by a rough outing on May 1 where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 6 innings. His projections indicate he may struggle again, with averages suggesting he could allow 2.8 earned runs and 5.1 hits today, which could be problematic against a potent Philadelphia lineup.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez is projected as a strong counter for the Phillies. With an ERA of 3.45 and a stellar ranking as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, Sanchez has been effective, having pitched well in his last start on April 30. His projections suggest he may allow fewer runs and strike out more batters than Baz today, which plays into the Phillies’ favor.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 8th in MLB, showcasing a lineup that has contributed significantly to their success, including a 4th place ranking in team batting average. In contrast, the Rays’ offense ranks only 19th overall and 25th in home runs, indicating a lack of power that could hinder their chances.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the odds favor the Phillies, who have a high implied team total of 4.70 runs compared to the Rays’ 3.80. Tampa Bay will need to find their offensive rhythm quickly if they hope to turn the tide in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have 7 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Max Kepler has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Shane Baz’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 91st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)