Team Stats and Insights for Phillies vs Rays Match Preview – 5/7/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Tampa Bay Rays

The Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays are set to clash again on May 7, 2025, following yesterday’s matchup in which the Phillies triumphed 8-4. This Interleague series has already provided plenty of excitement, and both teams will be looking to build momentum as they navigate the season.

Currently, the Rays are struggling with a record of 16-19, indicating a below-average season, while the Phillies are performing well at 20-15, showcasing their strength in the standings. Shane Baz, projected to start for the Rays, has had a mixed season thus far, holding a 3-1 record with a respectable ERA of 3.86. However, his 3.08 xERA suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, and he could be poised for improvement. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.4 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs, but his projected strikeouts of 5.2 are tempered by an alarming average of 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks allowed.

Conversely, Cristopher Sanchez, who will take the mound for the Phillies, is having a standout season with a 3-1 record and a great ERA of 3.45. Sanchez is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing just 2.4 earned runs, while striking out 5.5 batters on average. His solid performance is complemented by a bullpen that, although ranked 26th in MLB, can still provide support.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 8th best team in MLB, bolstered by a strong batting average that places them 4th overall. In contrast, the Rays rank 19th in offense, struggling particularly with power, as evidenced by their 25th ranking in home runs. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the odds favor the Phillies, who come in as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140. However, with the Rays looking to turn things around, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest for bettors and fans alike.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have 7 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Max Kepler has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Shane Baz’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 91st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)