Team Stats and Insights for Padres vs Guardians Match Preview – 7/21/2024

San Diego Padres

@

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres square off at Progressive Field on July 21, 2024, for the third game in their interleague series. Cleveland is enjoying a strong season with a 59-38 record, while San Diego sits at a middling 51-50. In yesterday’s game, the Padres routed the Guardians 7-0, marking a notable upset given the close pre-game odds.

The Guardians will send Ben Lively to the mound. Despite his respectable 3.58 ERA, Lively’s 4.19 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate this year. With an 8-5 record over 16 starts, he’s proven capable but not dominant. Additionally, Lively’s 3.8 K/9 and projections of 2.7 earned runs over 5.4 innings signal average to below-average performance.

Conversely, the Padres will counter with Michael King, who ranks as the 28th-best starting pitcher in MLB. King boasts a 3.41 ERA over 19 starts and is better in almost every statistical measure compared to Lively. His last start saw him pitch six innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out nine. King’s projections of 2.4 earned runs over 5.7 innings align with his excellent ranking.

Offensively, both teams have shown solid power. Cleveland ranks 10th in home runs and ninth in stolen bases. They’ve leaned heavily on Jose Ramirez, who leads the team with 23 homers and an .837 OPS. San Diego, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in team batting average and 10th in home runs, anchored by Jurickson Profar’s .298 average and 14 home runs.

Cleveland’s bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in MLB, while San Diego’s bullpen ranks 11th. Despite the disparity in bullpen strength, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives San Diego a 53% win probability for this game. Given Michael King’s superior pitching metrics and the Padres’ recent shutout, they appear to have the edge in this closely contested matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• The San Diego Padres (18.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 90 games (+10.77 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.09 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)