Team Stats and Insights for Braves vs Pirates Match Preview – 5/11/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on May 11, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Pirates currently sit at 13-27, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Braves are at 19-20, hovering around the .500 mark. Despite their underwhelming records, the Braves are favored in this matchup, reflecting their recent performance and pitching edge.

In their last game on May 10, the Pirates narrowly lost to the Braves by a score of 3-2, adding to their woes. They are projected to start Carmen Mlodzinski, who has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and a dismal ERA of 6.16. His performance has been less than stellar, ranking him as the 217th best starting pitcher in MLB, placing him among the league’s worst. Mlodzinski projects to pitch around 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, which is concerning given the Pirates’ struggles at the plate.

On the other side, the Braves will send Chris Sale to the mound. Sale is having a solid season, with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 4.07, ranking him 11th among MLB starters. His last outing was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and racked up 10 strikeouts. The projections suggest that Sale is likely to perform well, as he averages 5.9 innings pitched and is expected to allow just 2.3 earned runs today.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 28th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Braves sit at 17th, showing a more balanced attack. The Pirates’ best hitter has been a bright spot, boasting an OPS of .830, but overall, the team has struggled to find consistency. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the odds favor the Braves, who have a higher implied team total of 4.69 runs compared to the Pirates’ low 3.31 runs. As the teams meet for the third game of their series, the Braves look to capitalize on their pitching advantage and continue their momentum.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-240)
  Chris Sale is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Carmen Mlodzinski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  Carmen Mlodzinski has been unlucky this year, compiling a 6.16 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.75 — a 1.41 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Matt Gorski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt Gorski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)