Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians
(-115/-105)-120
As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on April 12, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standing in the American League Central. The Guardians currently hold a record of 6-6, while the Royals are slightly ahead at 7-6. This matchup is crucial as both teams seek to gain an edge early in the season.
In their previous contest, the Guardians were edged out by the Royals, making this second game of the series even more significant. The Guardians are projected to start Luis Ortiz, who ranks 201st among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced statistics. That places him among the lower tier of pitchers, but his projection indicates he will average 5.5 innings pitched while allowing 2.4 earned runs today, which is solid. However, Ortiz’s tendency to give up 5.1 hits and 1.8 walks could spell trouble against a Royals lineup that has been more productive lately.
On the mound for the Royals will be Michael Lorenzen, who also ranks among the worst pitchers in the league. Although Lorenzen is projected to pitch 5.1 innings with a similar average of 2.5 earned runs allowed, his high walk rate of 2.6 could mitigate some of that effectiveness.
Offensively, the Guardians’ best hitter has been on a tear, recording 5 runs and 4 RBIs over the past week, alongside 3 home runs and a stellar 1.059 OPS. In contrast, the Royals’ best hitter boasts a .400 batting average over the same span, which is impressive but features fewer home runs.
With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets anticipate a close contest, reflected in the Guardians’ moneyline of -120 versus the Royals’ +100. This contest promises to be tight as both teams look to capitalize on their opportunities and establish momentum early in the season.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under StrikeoutsMichael Lorenzen has used his cut-fastball 7.5% more often this season (17.7%) than he did last season (10.2%).Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Kansas City Royals – 2H MoneylineThe Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-120)The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the best out of every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.