New York Mets
San Francisco Giants
(+100/-120)-145
The San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets on July 25, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup as both teams seek to bolster their standings in the National League. The Giants, currently sitting with a 54-49 record, are having an above-average season, while the Mets are faring even better at 59-44, showcasing their good form.
In their last game, the Mets secured a solid win, giving them momentum as they face a Giants team projected to start Logan Webb. Webb, ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB by the leading MLB projection system, has been impressive this season with a 3.08 ERA and a 9-7 record. His underlying metrics suggest he has faced some bad luck, as indicated by his 2.58 FIP, which points to the potential for even better performances ahead.
On the other side, the Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who has a decent 3.48 ERA and is ranked 58th among starting pitchers. However, he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as reflected in his higher xFIP of 4.07. This matchup may favor Webb, especially considering his low walk rate of 5.4%, which could neutralize the Mets’ patient offense that ranks 4th in MLB for walks.
Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Mets sit at 11th, bolstered by a powerful lineup that ranks 8th in home runs. The Giants’ weak offensive showing could be a significant factor as they face a solid Mets bullpen, currently ranked 28th in MLB, which may give the Giants some opportunities to capitalize.
With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on Webb’s ability to control the game and the Giants finding ways to score against a good Mets lineup. The Giants are favored with a moneyline of -140, indicating confidence in Webb’s ability to lead them to victory at Oracle Park.
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)Given the 0.83 discrepancy between Clay Holmes’s 3.48 ERA and his 4.31 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform worse in future games.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Extreme flyball bats like Tyrone Taylor are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Logan Webb’s 2119-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 13th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Wilmer Flores is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+11.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 away games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)