Simulation and Insights for Mets vs Braves Match Preview – Saturday August 23, 2025

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the New York Mets on August 23, 2025, the stakes are palpable, especially considering the Braves’ disappointing season at 58-70. The Mets, on the other hand, are enjoying a more successful campaign with a record of 68-60. In their previous matchup, the Braves fell to the Mets, and they will look to bounce back at Truist Park.

Cal Quantrill is projected to take the mound for the Braves, and his season has been rocky, with a Win/Loss record of 4-10 and an ERA that sits at a troubling 5.50. While his xFIP of 4.61 indicates he might have experienced some bad luck, his performance has left much to be desired. He faces a Mets offense that ranks 11th in the league, showcasing their ability to capitalize on pitching weaknesses.

Clay Holmes, slated to start for the Mets, has been a solid contributor with a 10-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.64. However, his SIERA of 4.34 suggests he might be due for a regression. Holmes has been effective but could face challenges against a Braves lineup that, despite being ranked 14th overall in offense, has the potential to exploit pitching mismatches.

With the Braves boasting a high implied team total of 4.53 runs, they will need to lean on their best hitters, who have shown promise recently. Atlanta’s best player has been on fire, recording 9 hits and 13 RBIs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Mets’ top hitter has been even hotter, showcasing a 0.481 batting average during the same span.

Overall, while the Braves are struggling, they have the tools to pull off an upset against the Mets if Quantrill can find his groove and limit the damage. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, expect an exciting matchup as both teams look to secure a crucial win.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Clay Holmes performed well in his previous outing and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the New York Mets offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Compared to league average, Cal Quantrill has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing an -9.5 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Matt Olson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 47% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)