See the Updated Player Rankings for Twins vs Orioles – May 15, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Minnesota Twins on May 15, 2025, the stakes remain significant, especially with the Orioles looking to turn their season around after a dismal 15-26 start. The Twins, hovering at 23-20, are enjoying an above-average season and will look to capitalize on the Orioles’ struggles. In their last outing, the Twins secured a victory against Baltimore, further deepening the Orioles’ woes.

On the mound, the Orioles will send Tomoyuki Sugano to the hill. Despite a respectable 4-2 record and impressive 2.72 ERA this season, Sugano ranks as the 263rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he might be overperforming relative to his true talent level. His xFIP of 4.29 suggests he could face tougher times ahead, particularly against a disciplined Twins lineup that ranks 5th in the league for fewest walks drawn. Sugano’s current projections reflect potential vulnerabilities, with averages of 3.2 earned runs allowed and 6.0 hits, which may not bode well against the Twins.

Chris Paddack, slated to start for Minnesota, has also had his struggles with a 4.76 ERA. However, he too is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs and 5.6 hits. Both pitchers are right-handed and face lineups that have shown inconsistency this season.

While the Orioles’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB and struggles to generate runs, they do have some power, ranking 12th in home runs. The Twins, conversely, sit at 21st in offensive rankings and 24th in home runs. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close matchup, especially with the Orioles holding a moneyline of -135, suggesting a slight edge in this crucial game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (+110)
  Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Trevor Larnach has been hot of late, cracking 2 dingers in the last week.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Tomoyuki Sugano is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #2 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Minnesota (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+315/-460)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+9.40 Units / 188% ROI)